As another quarter wraps up, it’s time to dive into 21 insightful charts that shed light on the current state of the Bitcoin mining market. Let’s break down the trends and key metrics shaping the industry.
Bitcoin Price
Two Year MA Multiplier
Fear and Greed Index
Bitcoin ETFs Net Inflow
Bitcoin Holdings
Long-Term Holder Supply
Miner Reserve
Exchange Reserve
Network Hashrate 7-DMA
Hash Ribbon Indicator
Difficulty Adjustment: Bar Chart
Premium Members Only:
Difficulty Adjustment: Line Chart
Hashvalue
Hashprice
NiceHash Payrate
Tx Fees as % of Block Reward
Miner Revenue
ASIC Prices
Network Dominance by ASIC Model
Total Power Usage
Mining Pool Hashrate Distribution
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1. Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin started Q3 2024 at around $63,000 and ended the quarter at roughly the same level. However, the price action over the last three months has been a roller coaster. At the end of July, BTC surged to $70,000, only to experience a 30% drop within just 7 days. The lowest point, just below $50,000, was reached on August 5th. After another big swing up and down, Bitcoin closed the quarter at $64,000.
The price is now back above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is currently being tested. If it holds above this 200 SMA, it could give the bulls more confidence heading into Q4. Year-to-date, Bitcoin is up $21,500, or 50%.
2. Two Year MA Multiplier
The Two-Year MA Multiplier is a chart designed as a long-term investment tool, highlighting periods when buying or selling Bitcoin would have yielded significant returns. The chart uses a 2-year moving average (MA) line and a line that multiplies this moving average by five (2-year MA x5).
According to the chart, Bitcoin exited the undervalued zone at the end of last year and has remained in neutral territory throughout the current year. At present, Bitcoin’s price is still below the mean of the neutral zone. The 2-year MA is currently around $39,000, while the 2-year MA x5 stands at $195,000. Both moving averages have increased during Q3.
3. Fear and Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index is a tool that helps investors and traders analyze the Bitcoin market from a sentiment perspective. It measures the extent to which the market is becoming overly fearful or overly greedy, hence its name. When the market is overly fearful, the index suggests that Bitcoin may be undervalued, potentially offering a good buying opportunity. Conversely, when the index indicates extreme greed, it may signal that Bitcoin is overpriced, suggesting it could be a good time to sell.
The Fear and Greed Index started the year at 65. During March, when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, the index ranged between 80 and 90. In Q3, sentiment shifted compared to previous quarters. Only a few days saw the index rise above 70, while the majority of days had sentiment below 40. The lowest point was 17, occurring when BTC briefly dipped below $50,000. Values below 20 were last seen in mid-2022, when BTC dropped below $20,000.
4. Bitcoin ETFs Net Inflow
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading on January 10th and saw significant inflows in Q1, particularly in February and March. However, demand slowed down afterward. During the latter part of Q2, there was a net outflow, but ETF buying picked up again at the start of Q3. In July, there was a surge in total net BTC flows to ETFs, rising from 250K BTC to 300K BTC. After fluctuating below the 300K BTC level, demand regained momentum in late September.
5. Bitcoin Holdings
There has been a notable outflow from GBTC as investors shifted to other ETFs with more attractive fees. Grayscale’s GBTC started with 605,891 BTC at the launch of the ETFs and ended the first half of the year holding 275,399 BTC, an outflow of 330,492 BTC. Despite this exodus, $GBTC remains the second-largest holder of Bitcoin among the ETFs. BlackRock showed the fastest growth in H1, with $IBIT holding 307K BTC. It is noteworthy that all the publicly traded miners together hold less Bitcoin on their balance sheets than each of the top four ETFs individually.
6. Long-Term Holder Supply
The long-term holder (LTH) supply chart displays the total circulating Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders, defined as addresses that have held Bitcoin for 155 days or more. On January 1st, the total LTH supply was 16,284,373 BTC. Throughout H1 2024, there was a significant decline in the LTH supply, with the lowest point reached at the end of May at 14,730,949 BTC, representing a 9.5% decline. However, this trend reversed in Q3. In August and September, the LTH supply increased again, suggesting that more Bitcoin is being accumulated and held by investors confident in the asset’s future price appreciation. These holders, who have kept their Bitcoin for at least 155 days, are less likely to sell in the short term, signalling a reduced likelihood of significant sell pressure in the market.
7. Miner Reserve
The miner reserve refers to the amount of Bitcoin held by affiliated miners’ wallets. This value represents the reserves that miners have not yet sold. When miners begin to sell these reserves, it could lead to a price drop.
The miner reserve has been on a steady throughout H1 of 2024. In Q3 miners stopped selling at a higher pace than they produce. This led to the stabilization of the miner reserve, halting the downtrend that had persisted for over two years.
8. Exchange Reserve
The exchange reserve represents the total number of coins held on exchanges. The Bitcoin balance on exchanges has been in a downtrend since February. During Q3, this trend accelerated, and the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges hit a five-year low. This suggests low liquidity on exchange platforms, meaning that if demand picks up, the price could respond quickly.
9. Network Hashrate 7-DMA
At the start of Q3, the post-halving hashrate decline reversed. On August 7th, the network hashrate reached an all-time high, briefly touching the 700 EH/s level, a 27% increase from the local low of 551 EH/s at the end of June. In August and September, the hashrate started ranging, spending most of its time between 625 EH/s and 650 EH/s. Curtailment due to summer heat and low profit margins kept the hashrate increase from the deployment of the latest generation machines in check.
After reaching new all-time highs in early September, the network hashrate experienced a sharp decline, dropping to 615 EH/s. This represents a decrease of 85 EH/s, or 12%, in just over a week—marking the second-largest decline in 2024 over such a short time span.
10. Hash Ribbon Indicator
The Bitcoin Hash Ribbon indicator aims to identify periods when Bitcoin miners are under stress and may be capitulating. Instead of pinpointing the exact price bottom, it highlights times when mining rigs are being turned off due to challenging market conditions, leading to drops in hashrate. These periods often coincide with major bottoms in Bitcoin’s price.
When the 30-day moving average (30DMA) drops below the 60-day moving average (60DMA), it signals hashrate declines and miner capitulation, represented by dark pink vertical lines. When the 30DMA moves back above the 60DMA, it indicates the end of miner capitulation, shown by light pink vertical lines.
Post-2020 halving, the capitulation phase lasted one month. The longest capitulation phase in history occurred during the China mining ban in 2021, lasting over three months. The miner capitulation of 2024 began on May 10th and ended on July 25th. At 77 days, this year’s capitulation phase surpassed the post-2020 halving period.
11. Difficulty Adjustment: Bar Chart
There were 19 difficulty adjustments in 2024, six of which occurred in Q3. In July, we saw the second-largest downward adjustment of the year (5%), giving miners some relief during a period of low margins. Just two epochs later, on July 31st, we witnessed the largest upward adjustment since October 2022, with difficulty increasing by 10.5%.
The following content of the state of the Bitcoin mining market is exclusively for our Premium Members:
Difficulty Adjustment: Line Chart
Hashvalue
Hashprice
NiceHash Payrate
Tx Fees as % of Block Reward
Miner Revenue
ASIC Prices
Network Dominance by ASIC Model
Total Power Usage
Mining Pool Hashrate Distribution
