Over 25% of Bitcoin miners are at a crossroads as tight profitability persists. The current hashprice has pushed dominant machines like the S19 and M30s+ to operate near or below break-even levels, forcing miners to make critical decisions about upgrades and operational strategies. At the same time, latest-generation ASICs are starting to make an impact, although it will take several more months for them to surpass the S19’s dominance on the network. Let’s dive into the current state of the ASIC hardware market.
Hardware Buyers Sitting Tight
97% of Value Lost in 4 Years
Crucial Moments for S19/M30s+ Miners
Hashprice Below key profitability benchmark
Daily Profits S19 Turning Red
The Significance of the S19 on the Network
Difficulty Adjustment Unaffected So Far
Latest Generation Stepping In
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Overview of 2024/25 ASIC Hardware Launches
Canaan Introduces Bitcoin Mining Heaters for Home
This article touches upon a part of an extensive 2024 review report in which we did a deep dive into the state of the network, mining economics, the ASIC hardware market, public miners and provide a future outlook. Make sure to download “2024 Review – Trends, Insights and the Road Ahead” for FREE.
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Hardware Buyers Sitting Tight
Prices across all tiers were sliding throughout 2024 until Q4, when bullish Bitcoin price action appeared to establish a market bottom. As a result, prices began to rise gradually as the market headed toward 2025. However, entering the new year, Bitcoin’s weak price action has left hardware buyers hesitant to make purchases. Over the past few weeks, the ASIC Price Index has remained practically flat, as miners wait to see how Trump’s inauguration will impact the markets.
97% of Value Lost in 4 Years
In 2024, the 25–38 joules/TH machines have experienced the sharpest decline in value, as many models were barely breaking even after the halving, especially for miners relying on hosting services. At the beginning of last year, these machines were priced slightly above $10/TH, but at their lowest point, they fell below $3/TH. For context, the same machines were selling for nearly $120/TH during the 2021 bull run. At the lowest point these miners were sold for $2.75/TH. Currently these miners are indexed at $3.53/TH on the index, still 97% from the highs.
Crucial Moments for S19/M30s+ Miners
Hashprice Below key profitability benchmark
Towards the end of 2024, hashprice recovered above $60/PH/day—a critical level where it hovered for much of 2023. This threshold holds particular significance for miners using 30+ J/TH ASICs, as it often marks a key profitability benchmark. However, with Bitcoin’s price sliding in recent weeks, hashprice has dropped to $55/PH/day. The longer it remains at these low levels, the greater the likelihood that miners will switch their 30+ J/TH machines to low-power mode or even shut them down entirely.
Daily Profits S19 Turning Red
The S19 and M30S+ both operate at an efficiency of approximately 34 J/TH. As shown in the table below, these ASIC miners require an operational cost of $0.06/kWh or lower to achieve break-even at the current hashprice. Only at an opex below $0.05/kWh, these machines begin generating more than $1 in daily profit.
The Significance of the S19 on the Network
Why are we focusing so much on ASIC hardware models released five years ago? According to Coinmetrics data, the S19 stands out as the workhorse of the Bitcoin network, accounting for 26.1% of its total hashrate. This generation of machines forms the backbone of many mining farms. If a significant portion of these machines goes offline, it could have a notable impact on the network’s hashrate and difficulty levels.
Would you like to learn more about the ASIC hardware market? Make sure to check out our Bitcoin Mining 2024 Review. Not only does it offers an in-depth analysis of the ASIC market, it offers insights into the sector’s key developments, including the state of the Bitcoin network, mining economics and the performance of publicly traded mining companies. Download the full report for FREE!
Difficulty Adjustment Unaffected So Far
On Sunday, January 12th, we witnessed the first difficulty adjustment of 2025. While the +0.61% adjustment is relatively modest, it marks the seventh consecutive upward adjustment—a streak last seen during the peak of the bull market in the second half of 2021.
The network hashrate has declined since the start of 2025, but the drop of nearly 50 EH/s is not unusual and occurred several times last year. For now, the 30+ J/TH machines operating at break-even or at a loss do not appear to have a significant impact on the network. The question is, for how long? Especially if margins remain suppressed.
Latest Generation Stepping In
The growth trajectories of latest Bitmain models paint a clear picture. The S19XP, launched in June 2022, took approximately 30 months to secure around 15% share of the market. In comparison, the S21, introduced just 10 months ago, has already captured a 4.7% share. The rapid uptake of the S21 suggests a pattern similar to the S19XP.
As mentioned, the Antminer S19 accounts for 26.1% of the network’s total hashrate. With the network currently at around 800 EH/s, the S19 contributes approximately 208 EH/s. To fully replace this hashrate with the S21 series, roughly one million S21 machines at 200 TH/s each would need to be deployed, or approximately 770,000 S21 XP machines at 270 TH/s each.
The most likely scenario is that S21-generation machines will gradually increase their dominance on the network over the coming years, percentage-wise, while the overall network continues to grow steadily. The S19’s will loose its dominance, but just as some Antminer S9s remain online today, it’s highly likely that S19s will still be active even as the S21 becomes the most dominant machine on the network in a couple of years.
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Overview of 2024/25 ASIC Hardware Launches
Canaan Introduces Bitcoin Mining Heaters for Home
