The first half of this year was very eventful, marked by significant developments for the Bitcoin mining sector. ETF approval propelled BTC prices to new all-time highs, while the deployment of the latest generation machines pushed network hashrate to 660 EH/s. The halving event was a great party for miners, with record transaction fees. However, the hangover from historically low hashprice levels is still being felt in the Bitcoin mining industry. ASIC prices remained quite stable as many miners held off on new investments to see the effects of the halving. Foundry and Antpool maintained their dominance, although ViaBTC rose to the third spot, capturing market share from Antpool. In this H1 2024 Bitcoin mining industry review, we delve into the following 21 charts:
Bitcoin Price: Weekly Candles
Two Year MA Multiplier
Fear and Greed Index
Bitcoin ETFs Net Inflow
Bitcoin Holdings
Long-Term Holder Supply
Miner Reserve
Network Hashrate: 7 Day Moving Average
Hash Ribbon Indicator
Difficulty Adjustment Bar Chart
Difficulty Adjustment: Line Chart
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Hashvalue
Hashprice
Transactions Fees
Tx Fees as % of Block Reward
Miner Revenue
ASIC Prices
Network Efficiency
Network Dominance by ASIC Model
Total Power Usage
Mining Pools: Hashrate Distribution
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1. Bitcoin Price: Weekly Candles
Bitcoin started 2024 at around $42,000 and saw a massive surge of 75% in the first quarter. BTC surpassed the November 2021 all-time high for the first time on March 5th, reaching as high as $73,800 on March 14th. In the second quarter of the year, Bitcoin’s price took a breather. It struggled to surpass $72,000 in Q2 but also did not break below the $60,000 level in a sustained way.
2. Two Year MA Multiplier
The Two-Year MA Multiplier is a chart designed as a long-term investment tool. It identifies periods where buying or selling Bitcoin would have resulted in significant returns. The chart employs a 2-year moving average (MA) line and a line that multiplies this moving average by five (2yr MA x5).
Looking at the chart below, you can see that Bitcoin came out of the undervalued zone at the end of last year and has been in neutral territory during H1 2024. The 2-year MA is currently around $34,000, and the 2-year MA x5 is at $171,000.
3. Fear and Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index is a tool that helps investors and traders analyze the Bitcoin market from a sentiment perspective. It measures the extent to which the market is becoming overly fearful or overly greedy, hence its name. When the market is generally overly fearful, the index suggests that Bitcoin may be undervalued, potentially presenting a good buying opportunity. Conversely, when the index indicates extreme greed, it may signal that Bitcoin is overpriced, suggesting it could be a good time to sell.
The Fear and Greed Index started the year at 65. During March, when Bitcoin marked a new all-time high, the index was between 80 and 90. In Q2, the sentiment changed, with the lowest level in H1 marked at the end of June with a value of 30. The last time the value was below 30 was in January 2023, when BTC was still trading below $20,000.
4. Bitcoin ETFs Net Inflow
The US spot Bitcoin ETFs started trading on January 10th. The ETFs saw a huge inflow in Q1, especially throughout February and March. The highest daily inflow occurred on March 12th, with 13.7K BTC flowing into the ETFs. This was two days before Bitcoin hit its all-time high. In the two months following the all-time high, the flows were quite flat. The highest outflow was recorded on May 9th, with a total of 9.7K BTC.
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5. Bitcoin Holdings
Since the launch of the ETFs, total holdings have reached 866K BTC. The nine new ETFs have acquired 591K Bitcoin in less than six months, with net inflows averaging just below 2,000 BTC per day. This is particularly impressive considering that the daily subsidy for miners decreased from 900 BTC per day to 450 BTC per day after the halving.
There has been a notable outflow from GBTC as investors shifted to other ETFs with more attractive fees. Grayscale’s GBTC started with 605,891 BTC at the launch of the ETFs and ended the first half of the year holding 275,399 BTC, an outflow of 330,492 BTC. Despite this exodus, $GBTC remains the second-largest holder of Bitcoin among the ETFs. BlackRock showed the fastest growth in H1, with $IBIT holding 307K BTC. It is noteworthy that all the publicly traded miners together hold less Bitcoin on their balance sheets than each of the top four ETFs individually.
6. Long-Term Holder Supply
The long-term holder (LTH) supply chart displays the total circulating Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders, defined as addresses that have held Bitcoin for 155 days or more. On January 1st, the total LTH supply was 16,284,373 BTC. Throughout H1 2024, there was a strong decline in the LTH supply, with the lowest point reached at the end of May at 14,730,949 BTC. This represents a 9.5% decline. In Q2, the LTH supply has not experienced much decline, as most of the reduction was due to profit-taking in Q1.
7. Miner Reserve
The miner reserve refers to the amount of Bitcoin held by affiliated miners’ wallets. This value represents the reserves that miners have not yet sold. When miners begin to sell these reserves, it could lead to a price drop.
The miner reserve has been on a steady decline since the start of the year. Only the weeks before and after the halving did the miner reserve remain relatively stable. Around the days of the halving, the reserve jumped due to an increase in transaction fees.
8. Network Hashrate: 7 Day Moving Average
The network hashrate began the year at 511 EH/s and ended H1 at 547 EH/s, marking a total growth of 36 EH/s or 7%. The deployment of S21s and other latest-generation mining equipment played a significant role in driving the hashrate growth during the first part of the year. The improved market conditions during Q1 also encouraged miners to deploy more hashrate. However, post-halving, the market conditions changed. Consequently, the growth of the network stalled, and after reaching a new all-time high of 660 EH/s on May 25th, the hashrate started declining. Currently, the hashrate is 17% below its all-time high.
As summer officially began, it is likely that network hashrate will not grow much in the coming months, especially if heat waves occur in major mining states such as Texas. Many miners must reduce operations during the summer months to prevent ASIC hardware from overheating, and because residential energy consumption reaches high levels due to air conditioning use. This increased demand puts pressure on the electrical grid and activates demand response clauses in power purchase agreements for miners such as Riot Platforms.
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9. Hash Ribbon Indicator
The Bitcoin Hash Ribbon indicator aims to identify periods when Bitcoin miners are under stress and may be capitulating. Instead of pinpointing the exact price bottom, it highlights times when mining rigs are being turned off due to challenging market conditions, leading to drops in hashrate. These periods often coincide with major bottoms in Bitcoin’s price. When the 30-day moving average (30DMA) drops below the 60-day moving average (60DMA), it indicates hashrate declines and miner capitulation, represented by dark pink vertical lines. When the 30DMA moves back above the 60DMA, it signals the end of miner capitulation, shown by light pink vertical lines.
Post 2020 halving, the capitulation phase lasted one month. The longest capitulation phase in history lasted over three months during the China mining ban in 2021. The current miner capitulation phase began on May 10th. By the end of H1, we were 52 days into this capitulation phase, surpassing the post-2020 halving capitulation period.
10. Difficulty Adjustment: Bar Chart
There were 13 difficulty adjustments in H1 2024. The three largest upward adjustments this year all occurred in Q1. The highest adjustment of 8.24% took place on February 15th. The largest decrease was -5.62%, which occurred on May 9th. The first adjustment after the halving resulted in a slight increase, as profitability around the halving remained relatively high.
11. Difficulty Adjustment: Line Chart
Difficulty started the year at 72.01T. By the end of H1, difficulty had risen to 83.68T, marking a 16.2% increase. On April 24th, a new all-time high in difficulty was reached at 88.10T. Towards the end of H1, the network difficulty began to flatten out, with the last adjustment being a minor decrease of -0.05%.
And now we move on to the next content for our Premium Members:
Hashvalue
Hashprice
Transactions Fees
Tx Fees as % of Block Reward
Miner Revenue
ASIC Prices
Network Efficiency
Network Dominance by ASIC Model
Total Power Usage
Mining Pools: Hashrate Distribution
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