Bitcoin price recovered back above $60,000 as Germany finished selling its holdings. Network hashrate climbed back to the 600 EH/s level, though miners are still capitulating. Difficulty is almost 10% off the all-time high, but an upward adjustment is incoming. Hashprice is slowly recovering from historic lows marked in early July. ASIC prices are trying to find a bottom as a new manufacturer closes one of the largest deals ever seen in the industry by hashrate. In today’s mining economics rundown, we will cover the following topics.
Bitcoin Recovered Back Above $60,000
Network Hashrate Bouncing off Lows
Miners Still Capitulating
Difficulty Adjustments Almost 10% off ATH
Hashprice Recovering from Historic Lows
ASIC Prices Trying to Find a Bottom
Decentralization of the ASIC Hardware Market
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Bitcoin Recovered Back Above $60,000
As the German government sold almost all of its Bitcoin and the panic around Mt. Gox’s announcement of selling BTC faded, Bitcoin was able to recover. After dropping below the 200-day moving average for the first time since it was at $28,000, BTC is now trading back above this important indicator. Moreover, Bitcoin was able to reclaim the $60,000 level. All in all, it has been a bullish week for BTC, and we’re back in the range that we were in for the majority of 2024.
Network Hashrate Bouncing off Lows
The network hashrate 7-day moving average (DMA) has been recovering and climbed back to the 600 EH/s level. Currently, the network hashrate is just under 600 EH/s, an increase of 8.4% from the post-halving bottom.
Miners Still Capitulating
The Bitcoin Hash Ribbon indicator aims to identify periods when Bitcoin miners are under stress and may be capitulating. When the hashrate 30-day moving average (30-DMA) drops below the 60-day moving average (60-DMA), it indicates hashrate declines and miner capitulation, represented by dark pink vertical lines. When the 30-DMA moves back above the 60-DMA, it signals the end of miner capitulation, shown by light pink vertical lines.
Post-2020 halving, the capitulation phase lasted one month. The longest capitulation phase in history lasted over three months during the China mining ban in 2021. The current miner capitulation phase began on May 10th, and we are 68 days in at the moment of publishing this article. The 30-DMA is climbing, but there is still a way to go before the capitulation phase ends.
Difficulty Adjustments Almost 10% off ATH
On July 5th, there was a downward difficulty adjustment of 5%, the second biggest correction post-halving. Network difficulty is currently at 79.50 T, which is 9.8% down from the all-time high of 88.10 T. With the network hashrate recovering, the adjustment projected for July 18th is estimated to be between 3.8% and 4%.
Hashprice Recovering from Historic Lows
The bearish BTC price action at the start of July pushed hashprice to new historic lows of $44/PH/Day, one dollar below the previous record low marked shortly after the halving. Slowly, hashprice is recovering, and this week it came back above the $50/PH/Day level again.
ASIC Prices Trying to Find a Bottom
ASIC prices are still at historically low levels. The post-halving price slide of the 25-38 J/TH machines has slowed down. There was even a slight uptick, which might be the first sign of a price bottom. The price ASICs with an efficiency under 25 J/TH has been flat for a month.
Decentralization of the ASIC Hardware Market
Block and Core Scientific have announced a significant agreement in which Block will supply Core Scientific with 3-nanometer (3nm) mining ASICs, representing approximately 15 exahashes per second (EH/s) of hashrate. This deal, one of the largest in the industry by hashrate, also includes an option for additional volume. Block’s Proto team has developed these ASICs to provide an innovative, efficient, and reliable modular mining platform that optimizes space and resources in data centers. This partnership is a major step towards decentralizing Bitcoin mining hardware, as the ASIC hardware market is currently dominated by Bitmain, which holds over 75% market share.
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