Bitcoin is about to breakout to a potential new all-time high, driven by renewed institutional interest. Exchange balances have dropped to their lowest levels in three years, reinforcing the long-term conviction seen among holders. Network hashrate continued its aggressive growth, with IREN now operating 30 EH/s. Due to suppressed margins public miners are shifting from a HODL strategy to selective selling as they optimize for cash flow. For our premium members, we provide a deep dive into hashrate growth, forecasting models, and what the next five years might hold.
New Bitcoin ATH in Sight
Institutional Bitcoin Flows Drive Price Action
Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges Hits 3-Year Low
Another Month, Another All-Time High in Hashrate
IREN Hits 30 EH/s
Public Miners Pivot from HODLing to Selling
Miners Get Some Relief as Hashprice Rebounds
Premium Members Only:
Bitcoin Hashrate’s Aggressive Growth Trajectory
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Hashrate Forecasting
Hashrate Growth Since 2018
What Could Hashrate Look Like in Five Years?
New Bitcoin ATH in Sight
On May 7, Bitcoin surged over $6,000 in a single day, blasting through the $100,000 mark. A new 90-day tariff agreement between the U.S. and China, announced by the White House on May 12, gave BTC an additional boost. The deal will see both countries reduce tariffs to 10%, a 24% cut from current levels, starting May 14. As investors anticipate a potential tax relief package, Bitcoin pushed to an intraday high of $105,819, just 3.6% below its all-time high of over $109,800, set in January 2025.
Despite the positive tone of the negotiations and the temporary suspension of additional tariffs, the price stumbled, falling to almost $100,000. Possible de-risking ahead of the May 13 CPI print may be contributing to the pullback. Bitcoin is now trading steadily above the 200-day simple moving average, which sits around $92,000. After gaining 9% in the past week, BTC may be entering a brief period of consolidation but the ATH is in sight.
Institutional Bitcoin Flows Drive Price Action
A key driver behind Bitcoin’s recent momentum is the net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the past 30 days, net inflows have totalled ~50,000 BTC. Spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $123.38 billion in assets under management (AUM), nearing the $125.67 billion peak recorded in January 2025, around the time BTC hit its all-time high of $109,000.
Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges Hits 3-Year Low
Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges fell to a three-year low of 2.45 million BTC on May 12. This marks a year-to-date decline of over 252,500 BTC. A drop in exchange reserves is often seen as a signal that investors are moving assets to private wallets which potentially indicates a rise in long-term holding behaviour and reduced selling pressure.
Another Month, Another All-Time High in Hashrate
Bitcoin’s network hashrate hit a record of 929 EH/s in early April before plunging to a monthly low of 817 EH/s, a sharp 12% drop, marking the steepest decline of 2025 so far. Remarkably, this was the third time in Bitcoin’s history that the hashrate fell by more than 100 EH/s, with another such drop already occurring earlier this year.
Following the dip, network hashrate had a strong V-shaped recovery, surging to a new all-time high of 935 EH/s by May 7, a 118 EH/s jump in just two weeks. Since then, hashrate growth has cooled slightly, with the current level settling back below 900 EH/s.
Following the recent drop in network hashrate, the last difficulty adjustment on May 3 came in at -3.34%. The next adjustment is projected for Saturday, May 17, with estimates pointing to an upwards move between 4.3% and 5%.
IREN Hits 30 EH/s
IREN’s operating hashrate surged by 25% in April, surpassing the 30 EH/s milestone and securing its position as the third-largest publicly listed Bitcoin miner, behind Marathon (57.3 EH/s) and CleanSpark (40.1 EH/s). IREN aims to reach 50 EH/s by the end of Q2 but will halt further growth of hashrate to focus on building out its AI infrastructure.
The realized hashrate among top mining firms continues to rise rapidly, with nine companies now operating above the 10 EH/s threshold. Collectively, the top five public miners control 193.2 EH/s—representing 20.8% of Bitcoin’s total network hashrate.
Public Miners Pivot from HODLing to Selling
A growing number of publicly listed Bitcoin mining firms are shifting from accumulation to liquidation strategies. According to TheMinerMag, preliminary April data shows that eight of the 15 tracked companies sold around 70% of their mined Bitcoin. This is the highest sell-through rate since January 2024. Riot Platforms and CleanSpark, previously near-100% holders, notably reversed course, with Riot selling more than it mined and CleanSpark liquidating 65% of its April production. CleanSpark also acquired 13,200 ASIC miners using Bitcoin. Only Marathon, Cango, and BitFuFu fully retained their BTC, with Marathon relying on equity funding and BitFuFu adding 61 BTC from its cloud mining operations.
Miners Get Some Relief as Hashprice Rebounds
The recent wave of selling by publicly traded miners highlights the ongoing pressure on mining margins, with hashprice remaining below $50/PH/s throughout March and April. However, a 3.3% drop in network difficulty, combined with Bitcoin’s breakout above $100K, has provided some relief. Hashprice has since rebounded to around $55/PH/day, offering a much-needed boost for miners operating in a tight-margin environment.
The following content is exclusively for our Premium Members:
Bitcoin Hashrate’s Aggressive Growth Trajectory
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Hashrate Forecasting
Hashrate Growth Since 2018
What Could Hashrate Look Like in Five Years?
