Geopolitical tensions are creating short-term swings, while ETF positioning is once again becoming a key level to watch. At the same time, the mining sector is undergoing a reset, with easing sell pressure, declining hashrate, and a meaningful difficulty adjustment. Meanwhile, Bitdeer’s launch of a new Scrypt miner highlights growing competition beyond Bitcoin, while the premium section explores how leading miners are positioning for the shift toward AI and HPC. Here are the key developments shaping Bitcoin and the mining sector this week.
Geopolitics Drives BTC Volatility
Average Entry Price Bitcoin ETF
Miner Selling Pressure Eases
Network Hashrate Drops Below 1 ZH Again
Sharp Reset in Mining Difficulty
Altcoin ASIC Competition Is Heating Up
Bitdeer Scales to the Top – Premium Insights
The Pivot to AI/HPC Goes Global – Premium Insights
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Geopolitics Drives BTC Volatility
After briefly touching a six-week high near $76,000 on March 17, Bitcoin dropped more than 11% in just five days. Rising tensions linked to the Iran conflict sparked renewed inflation concerns, raising the likelihood of tighter central bank policy and creating a less supportive backdrop for risk assets. However, sentiment shifted quickly. On Monday, Bitcoin rebounded toward the $70,000 level after U.S. President Donald Trump delayed potential military action targeting Iranian energy infrastructure.
Average Entry Price Bitcoin ETF
Bitcoin is approaching a critical level, the average entry price for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors sits around $79,900 and BTC has been on that level. This cohort represents one of the largest new sources of demand in the market. What is a position sitting in unrealized loss starts moving toward breakeven. In mid-2024, the ETF cost basis acted as a support zone. Now, it may once again become a key decision point for the market. At the same time, ETF flows are starting to turn. After weeks of persistent outflows through mid-February, flows have flipped back to positive.
In a bullish scenario, Bitcoin would test the $80K level. A sustained move above could push ETF investors back to breakeven, potentially unlocking a new wave of inflows and opening the path toward $95K–$98K. In a bearish scenario, rejection at these levels could send BTC back towards $70K, extending the current period of sideways-to-downward price action.
The key takeaway is simple: the ETF cost basis around $80K may become one of the most important levels in the market over the coming weeks. Because sometimes, the most important support and resistance levels are not technical but psychological.
Miner Selling Pressure Eases
Bitcoin miner selling pressure is starting to cool. On February 5th, more than 24,000 BTC flowed from miners to exchanges. In recent days, that number has dropped sharply to around 1,500–1,600 BTC per day.
This metric tracks the total amount of BTC transferred from mining pools to exchange wallets. These transfers are typically associated with selling activity, either to cover operational costs or to position inventory for potential liquidation.
The shift matters. Miner distribution is one of the market’s more persistent sources of structural sell-side pressure. A slowdown in these flows suggests that miners are currently selling less into the market, easing one of the key headwinds for price. From a market perspective, this is constructive. Lower miner inflows to exchanges reduce immediate supply pressure and can support price stability, especially in periods where demand is recovering.
That said, the overhang hasn’t disappeared. According to CryptoQuant data, miners still hold approximately 1.8 million BTC in reserves. A stockpile of that size remains significant, and if market conditions deteriorate, distribution could accelerate again. In other words, the pressure has eased, but it hasn’t gone away.
Network Hashrate Drops Below 1 ZH Again
The Bitcoin network hashrate has fallen back below the 1 zetahash threshold, now trending toward levels last seen earlier this year. At first glance, this might resemble the sharp decline in late January, but the underlying dynamics suggest a very different story.
The decline earlier this year was largely a response to the severe winter storm in the southeastern United States forced widespread curtailment, temporarily pushing hashrate lower. What we are seeing now appears far more structural.
This time, the decline points toward genuine economic pressure across the mining sector. With hashprice hovering around ~$30/PH/day for an extended period, a meaningful share of the network is operating at or below breakeven. For operators running older-generation ASICs or paying elevated power rates, margins have effectively disappeared. In many cases, shutting down is no longer optional, it is rational.
The most recent difficulty adjustment seems to have provided some short-term relief. However, the key question is whether this adjustment is sufficient to stabilize the network. Two scenarios now emerge: either hashrate finds a floor as weaker operators exit and stronger players absorb share, or we enter a deeper phase of capitulation that pushes network hashrate to new lows for 2026.
Sharp Reset in Mining Difficulty
Bitcoin mining difficulty dropped by 7.76% on March 20, marking the largest downward adjustment since the summer of 2021 (excluding temporary weather-related declines earlier this year). Network difficulty now stands at 133.79T, which is 14.2% below the all-time high of 155.97T reached in Q4 2025.
Altcoin ASIC Competition Is Heating Up
As demand for Bitcoin mining hardware shows signs of slowing, manufacturers are increasingly shifting their focus toward alternative algorithms. Last week, Bitdeer announced the launch of its new SEALMINER DL1 Air, designed for Scrypt-based coins such as Litecoin and Dogecoin.
The specifications position it competitively within the current generation of air-cooled Scrypt miners:
Hashrate: 25 GH/s
Efficiency: 149 J/GH
Power consumption: 3,725 W
Notably, the unit includes a Low Power Mode, improving efficiency to 136 J/GH at approximately 20.5 GH/s. The DL1 Air enters the market with the highest advertised hashrate in the air-cooled segment.
As Bitcoin ASIC demand cools and margins compress, manufacturers are increasingly exploring adjacent markets where competition is less saturated, and pricing power may still exist. Altcoin ASICs, particularly in established ecosystems like Scrypt, offer a logical expansion path.
In the premium section, we break down how leading miners are scaling beyond Bitcoin and repositioning their infrastructure for AI and HPC, not just in the U.S., but globally. If you want to understand where the next wave of value in compute is being built, this is where you need to look.
